Santa Cruz +0.75 (@Botafogo) -120 5units
Santa Cruz +0 +211 1.5units
Team Total Santa Cruz over 1 +111 1unit
Botafogo got promoted to Serie A last Tuesday, so there season is almost over by now: They want to secure 1st place, but in the end it doesn't really make a difference if they finish in 1st or 2nd place. Plus they are already 5 points ahead with 3 games left.
Early promotion often times leads to weak performances in the final few games, letdown spot for teams because their focus isn't 100% anymore because they achieved their goal and usually celebrate this accordingly, losing focus and not preparing as much for the next game as they usually did. Bota also had to travel back home from Luverdense, got a day off and today will be one huge celebration no matter what the result will be.
They get their top striker Navarro back, which might solve some of their recent offensive woes, but they will be without their goalkeeper Jefferson (@Argentina with the Brazilian national team), one of their centre backs is suspended, the other one highly doubtful because of muscular problems. The only backup centre back might have to play outside because one of their outside backs is also doubtful. In that case even one of their sub20-players would get the chance to make his 1st start for the pro team. Another midfielder is also questionable and their 2nd best striker Sassa is injured, so Bota is far from fielding their best team and esp. the defense today will be a new formation, primarily formed by subs/backups, that have never played together and haven't played regularly.
Santa Cruz has played a strong 2nd half, have won their last 3 matches and are at full strength, even getting striker Grafite back. They need points to secure 4th place (last promotion rank). After struggling early on and changing their coach, they finally got healthy and last 11 are 7-2-2, in the season's 2nd half (last 15) lost only once by 2 or more goals. Offensively one of the best teams when at full strength, they scored 13times in their last 7 and 20times over that 7-2-2 stretch.
Motivation, focus are in favor of Santa Cruz, the current roster situation for todays game also favors Santa Cruz and in my opinion they will field the stronger team today. Only thing in favor of Botafogo is them playing at home, where they are 11-4-2 and for todays game they were even allowed to increase stadium capacity to 35.000.
That last point even adds to me liking SC because with Bota already being promoted, I expect them to play rather offensively, trying to give their fans a nice show instead of trying to secure a clean sheet and sit back.
America Mineiro +0.25 -111 2units
Small bet here: Parana has been playing terrible, overall bad 2nd half with a 5-5-6 record. Last 12 even worse at 2-5-5. Those two wins came against Mogi Mirim, who are dead last and PAR scored the winning goal in the 94th(!)min. The other win was at home vs Macae, currently also on a relegation rank (17th of 20) and at that time MAC was playing horrific. They will be getting a key midfielder back, who missed their last two 0-2 losses on the road, but even with him in the lineup they didn't beat anyone. They had to travel back from their trip to the Northeast, so no prep advantage despite this being a home game and their supporters have been booing and criticizing the team recently, so being at home might turn into a disadvantage due to mounting pressure if they don't score or at least play well early on today.
America is in 2nd place, get important midfielder Tony back, no important missings, have won 7 of their last 8 and are 9-1-2 over their last 12. That record is slightly misleading because it includes maybe 1-2 rather lucky wins, but overall they're playing very well, beat 3rd place team Vitoria 4-0 in their last game on Thursday (aided by a red card vs Vitoria but they were already up) and one of their losses was very unlucky, too, conceding the winning goal in the 94th min and being a man down.
Santa Cruz +0 +211 1.5units
Team Total Santa Cruz over 1 +111 1unit
Botafogo got promoted to Serie A last Tuesday, so there season is almost over by now: They want to secure 1st place, but in the end it doesn't really make a difference if they finish in 1st or 2nd place. Plus they are already 5 points ahead with 3 games left.
Early promotion often times leads to weak performances in the final few games, letdown spot for teams because their focus isn't 100% anymore because they achieved their goal and usually celebrate this accordingly, losing focus and not preparing as much for the next game as they usually did. Bota also had to travel back home from Luverdense, got a day off and today will be one huge celebration no matter what the result will be.
They get their top striker Navarro back, which might solve some of their recent offensive woes, but they will be without their goalkeeper Jefferson (@Argentina with the Brazilian national team), one of their centre backs is suspended, the other one highly doubtful because of muscular problems. The only backup centre back might have to play outside because one of their outside backs is also doubtful. In that case even one of their sub20-players would get the chance to make his 1st start for the pro team. Another midfielder is also questionable and their 2nd best striker Sassa is injured, so Bota is far from fielding their best team and esp. the defense today will be a new formation, primarily formed by subs/backups, that have never played together and haven't played regularly.
Santa Cruz has played a strong 2nd half, have won their last 3 matches and are at full strength, even getting striker Grafite back. They need points to secure 4th place (last promotion rank). After struggling early on and changing their coach, they finally got healthy and last 11 are 7-2-2, in the season's 2nd half (last 15) lost only once by 2 or more goals. Offensively one of the best teams when at full strength, they scored 13times in their last 7 and 20times over that 7-2-2 stretch.
Motivation, focus are in favor of Santa Cruz, the current roster situation for todays game also favors Santa Cruz and in my opinion they will field the stronger team today. Only thing in favor of Botafogo is them playing at home, where they are 11-4-2 and for todays game they were even allowed to increase stadium capacity to 35.000.
That last point even adds to me liking SC because with Bota already being promoted, I expect them to play rather offensively, trying to give their fans a nice show instead of trying to secure a clean sheet and sit back.
America Mineiro +0.25 -111 2units
Small bet here: Parana has been playing terrible, overall bad 2nd half with a 5-5-6 record. Last 12 even worse at 2-5-5. Those two wins came against Mogi Mirim, who are dead last and PAR scored the winning goal in the 94th(!)min. The other win was at home vs Macae, currently also on a relegation rank (17th of 20) and at that time MAC was playing horrific. They will be getting a key midfielder back, who missed their last two 0-2 losses on the road, but even with him in the lineup they didn't beat anyone. They had to travel back from their trip to the Northeast, so no prep advantage despite this being a home game and their supporters have been booing and criticizing the team recently, so being at home might turn into a disadvantage due to mounting pressure if they don't score or at least play well early on today.
America is in 2nd place, get important midfielder Tony back, no important missings, have won 7 of their last 8 and are 9-1-2 over their last 12. That record is slightly misleading because it includes maybe 1-2 rather lucky wins, but overall they're playing very well, beat 3rd place team Vitoria 4-0 in their last game on Thursday (aided by a red card vs Vitoria but they were already up) and one of their losses was very unlucky, too, conceding the winning goal in the 94th min and being a man down.
+8.45
